Nfl Betting Odds Calculator
Find NFL odds, point spreads, and betting lines for the 2020-2021 football season. Visit FOXSports.com for this week's top action! There are three common NFL betting lines: the side, total and moneyline. Side: The side refers to the point spread. While the odds can fluctuate, most sides are -110, meaning you have to bet $110. A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a high payout. A 2 team parlay might pay 13/5, a three team parlay might pay 6/1, a four team parlay might pay.
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How to read Super Bowl 55 Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs wil meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Feb. 7, 2021.
The Chiefs opened as -3.5 betting favorites while the Buccaneers are 3.5 underdogs.
After early wagers came in, most operators are holding Kansas City -3 (-120).
If you were to wager on Kansas City -3, you would have to lay 5/6 odds (Bet $120 to win $100) instead of your normal 10/11 juice (Bet $110 to win $100).
The return on Tampa Bay would be even-money (1/1) and a $100 wager would return $100.
The total or over-under on Super Bowl 55 is hovering between 56 and 57 points.
How to read NFL Las Vegas Odds
The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to entice bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. The favorite is usually the perceived better team in the game, as backing them means giving up several points.
The favorite is always listed with a minus (-) sign before the point-spread while the underdog is labeled with a plus (+) label.
Ex. Favorite -10, Underdog +10
On the VegasInsider.com odds page, there is another number associated with the favorite and its listed as -10. This number is simply defined as “vig” or what many in the sports betting industry call vigorish. Another common term is called “juice” and it’s technically the price the bettor has to pay on a straight wager.
Ex. Bet $110 to win $100 (10% juice)
Ex. Bet $100 to win $90.91 (10% juice)
It's not uncommon to see other values posted other than -10. Examples seen on the NFL Vegas Odds pages could include -08, -12, -15 and -20. The -10 price is the most common value in the industry while many books offer reduced 'juice odds' and that would fall into the -08 category.
The lower-juice sportsbooks are normally found outside of the state Nevada. If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make NFL bets.
Another number that’s posted on the NFL Las Vegas is the total or ‘over/under’ for the specific matchup. If the favorite is designated as the home team, then the total will be listed above and vice versa if the visitors are favorites.
All of the above numbers are listed next to the teams, and before each matchup is a Rotation number. The NFL Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time.
NFL Open Line
One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. If you’re betting on the NFL or any other sport, it’s a great idea to view the open line first.
VI Consensus NFL Line
The VegasInsider.com Consensus NFL Line is just as important as the Open Line and also a key resource on odds platform. The Consensus column could be called a “Median Line” since it shows the most consistent number provided by the sportsbooks on VegasInsider.com. The consensus line will be the same as the open line but once the wagers start coming in, this number is often different than the openers.
How do I bet on the Super Bowl?
We know that you can bet on the Super Bowl and all of NFL Futures or bet on the NFL Draft at any time of the year, but what’s the process? The future wager or the “Odds to Win” bet on the Super Bowl is correctly selecting a team to win an event that takes place at a later time. A bettor will have his wagered money tied up until there is an outcome and bettors will receive fixed odds when they place the wager. In the case of the Super Bowl, you’re not a winner or loser until you see zeros on the clock in the final game.
Most sportsbooks offer different ways to read to Super Bowl Odds. In the fractional NFL Futures Odds format below, you simply take the odds and multiply by the amount wagered.
Ex. Green Bay (8/1) to win the Super Bowl
The Packers are listed as an 8/1 betting choice to win the Super Bowl. If you wager $100 on Green Bay to win the NFC and they capture the championship, then you would win $800 (8 ÷ 1 x 100). Your online betting account would then credit your account $900, which includes your win and stake ($100).
The American Format would see Green Bay listed at +800 and for the Decimal Format, the Packers would be 9.00.
If you are in a state where online betting is legal, we encourage you to check out our sportsbook directory to find the most trustworthy and reputable sites and mobile apps to place your Super Bowl bets.
While the NFL point spread is the most popular type of bet in the
United States, most that bet this proposition are unfamiliar with how
to calculate the point spread odds themselves, and this article aims to
change that.
Because of the way football is scored, some point spreads are
more important than others. As such, it is worth the time to read the
article on Key NFL Point Spreads before continuing.
The Team's Winning Percentage is Everything
Before you can calculate point spread odds you must have an idea as to
how often the teams playing in the game are going to win. This is the
most crucial part to calculating fair point spread odds, as the actual
margin of victory in a game is a chance event. The more often a team
wins the game the more likely they are to win by a larger margin of
victory. To calculate how often you can expect at team to win, checkout
Smart Pro Football Handicapping.
Once you know a team's probability of winning a given game, you can
then calculate the probability of the team covering a specific point
spread.
To calculate these point spread odds you must know the conditional probability distribution for a team winning by a specific number of points given that we already know they have won
the game. This distribution for the average NFL game is referred to as
the overall margin of victory distribution and is shown below.
Overall Margin of Victory Distribution
For an average NFL game the winning team's margin of victory will follow the following probability distribution:
| Margin of Victory | Exactly | Less Than | Greater Than | Less Than or Equal To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.46% | 0.00% | 94.60% | 3.46% |
| 2.89% | 3.46% | 90.57% | 6.85% | |
| 3 | 14.51% | 6.85% | 73.69% | 22.29% |
| 3.39% | 22.29% | 69.31% | 26.45% | |
| 5 | 2.64% | 26.45% | 65.81% | 29.82% |
| 4.18% | 29.82% | 60.58% | 34.89% | |
| 7 | 8.08% | 34.89% | 51.13% | 44.19% |
| 2.57% | 44.19% | 47.78% | 47.54% | |
| 9 | 1.14% | 47.54% | 46.10% | 49.21% |
| 5.12% | 49.21% | 39.94% | 55.43% | |
| 11 | 2.19% | 55.43% | 37.06% | 58.36% |
| 1.01% | 58.36% | 35.56% | 59.90% | |
| 13 | 2.64% | 59.90% | 32.17% | 63.38% |
| 3.68% | 63.38% | 27.66% | 68.05% | |
| 15 | 0.85% | 68.05% | 26.37% | 69.39% |
| 1.40% | 69.39% | 24.43% | 71.43% | |
| 17 | 2.93% | 71.43% | 20.78% | 75.29% |
| 1.61% | 75.29% | 18.62% | 77.59% | |
| 19 | 0.75% | 77.59% | 17.46% | 78.83% |
| 1.40% | 78.83% | 15.54% | 80.90% | |
| 21 | 2.02% | 80.90% | 12.95% | 83.74% |
To account for a margin of error, the data in the table above are
the lower limits of a one-sided 99% confidence interval based on actual
results for NFL regular season games from the 1997-2006 seasons.
A Quick Word Regarding Blowouts
A common mistake NFL point spread bettors make is betting on the blowout.
Based on the data in the table above you can see that at least
27.66% of all NFL games will end with a margin of victory of 15 pointsor higher. It's easy to see why bettors bet for the blowout, as that's
roughly 1 out of every 4 games!
Bettors hate to see their team get crushed, but like it or
not, at least 12.95% of all games will have the winning team do so by
22 or more points (almost 1 out of every 8 games).
Don't let these probabilities affect you psychologically when
looking over a given Sunday's results. Your bankroll will thank you for
it.
The Home and Away Difference
Only a very small percentage of NFL games are played at a
neutral site, so it is important to take into account the difference
Nfl Betting Odds Calculator 2019
between winning at home and winning on the road when calculating pointspread odds.
Home Margin of Victory Distribution
| Margin of Victory | Exactly | Less Than | Greater Than | Less Than or Equal To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 94.58% | 2.94% |
| 2.36% | 2.94% | 90.84% | 5.90% | |
| 3 | 13.24% | 5.90% | 74.55% | 20.27% |
| 2.82% | 20.27% | 70.51% | 24.03% | |
| 5 | 2.36% | 24.03% | 67.06% | 27.29% |
| 3.06% | 27.29% | 62.78% | 31.37% | |
| 7 | 7.70% | 31.37% | 53.28% | 40.62% |
| 2.24% | 40.62% | 50.04% | 43.81% | |
| 9 | 0.97% | 43.81% | 48.39% | 45.45% |
| 4.74% | 45.45% | 42.31% | 51.56% | |
| 11 | 2.07% | 51.56% | 39.33% | 54.59% |
| 0.92% | 54.59% | 37.77% | 56.18% | |
| 13 | 2.47% | 56.18% | 34.33% | 59.72% |
| 3.29% | 59.72% | 29.96% | 64.25% | |
| 15 | 0.47% | 64.25% | 29.03% | 65.23% |
| 1.29% | 65.23% | 27.02% | 67.34% | |
| 17 | 3.06% | 67.34% | 22.98% | 71.64% |
| 1.51% | 71.64% | 20.73% | 74.05% | |
| 19 | 0.76% | 74.05% | 19.42% | 75.48% |
| 1.40% | 75.48% | 17.33% | 77.76% | |
| 21 | 1.57% | 77.76% | 15.05% | 80.28% |
Away Margin of Victory Distribution
| Margin of Victory | Exactly | Less Than | Greater Than | Less Than or Equal To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.38% | 0.00% | 93.45% | 3.38% |
| 2.89% | 3.38% | 88.74% | 7.05% | |
| 3 | 14.68% | 7.05% | 70.38% | 23.19% |
| 3.38% | 23.19% | 65.45% | 27.80% | |
| 5 | 2.34% | 27.80% | 61.83% | 31.23% |
| 4.85% | 31.23% | 55.23% | 37.60% | |
| 7 | 7.39% | 37.60% | 45.84% | 46.88% |
| 2.34% | 46.88% | 42.32% | 50.42% | |
| 9 | 0.92% | 50.42% | 40.62% | 52.15% |
| 4.69% | 52.15% | 34.41% | 58.53% | |
| 11 | 1.73% | 58.53% | 31.70% | 61.35% |
| 0.72% | 61.35% | 30.30% | 62.81% | |
| 13 | 2.19% | 62.81% | 27.06% | 66.24% |
| 3.38% | 66.24% | 22.46% | 71.17% | |
| 15 | 0.99% | 71.17% | 20.73% | 73.06% |
| 1.06% | 73.06% | 18.91% | 75.06% | |
| 17 | 2.03% | 75.06% | 15.93% | 78.37% |
| 1.21% | 78.37% | 13.96% | 80.60% | |
| 19 | 0.40% | 80.60% | 13.07% | 81.61% |
| 0.92% | 81.61% | 11.48% | 83.45% | |
| 21 | 2.03% | 83.45% | 8.60% | 86.86% |
The important thing to remember about the difference between
winning at home versus winning on the road is that teams that win at
home are more likely to win by a larger margin than teams that win on
the road.
With this key difference in mind, you've not got all the data you need to calculate point spread odds.
Calculating the Odds
With winning probabilities and margin of victory distributions in hand you can now calculate point spread odds.
Below are a couple of examples.
Example #1: You approximate the true winning percentage for a
team playing at home to be 58%, and the listed point spread is home
team -3 points. What are the fair odds for the home team covering -3
points and the away team covering +3 points?
Probability of home team covering -3 points:
Using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the
home team wins they will do so by more than 3 points at least 74.55% of
the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the
time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as
follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that
the home team will win by more than 3 points. This result is then
divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3
points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final
probability of the home team covering -3 points is 46.84%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +113.
Probability of away team covering +3 points:
Again, using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the
home team wins they will do so by less than 3 points at least 5.90% of
the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the
time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as
follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that
the home team will win by 2 points or less combined with the
probability that the away team will win outright. This result is then
divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3
points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final
Betting Nfl Games
probability of the away team covering +3 points is 49.20%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +103.It should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not
sum to 100%. The 'left over' 3.96% (100% - 46.84% - 49.20% = 3.96%) is
Nfl Betting
due to the margin of error. Because we're using historical data, we
can't be 100% sure of the exact probabilities.
Example #2: You approximate the true winning percentage for a
team playing on the road to be 75%, and the listed point spread is away
team -4.5 points. What are the fair odds for the away team covering
-4.5 points and the home team covering +4.5 points?
Probability of away team covering -4.5 points:
Using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the
away team wins they will do so by more than 4 points at least 65.45% of
the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds
as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the away team covering -4.5 points is 49.09%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +104.
Probability of home team covering +4.5 points:
Again, using the away team margin of victory distribution, when
the away team wins they will do so by less than or equal to 4 points at
least 27.80% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair
point spread odds as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the home team covering +4.5 points is 45.85%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +118.
As with the first example, it should now be obvious that the
probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. Again, the 'left
over' 5.06% (100% - 49.09% - 45.85% = 5.06%) is due to the margin of
error.
Summary
Using the data and calculations provided in this article you
should now be able to calculate point spread odds for any National
Football League game.